There is a new publication on the commercial property block: Bidwells Building Trends. Produced by the Bidwells Building Consultancy, it examines keys trends in the building, construction, asset management and property investment sectors.
The first edition finds UK commercial property values to be ‘25–35% lower than their peak back in 2007/8’. The economic outlook for the UK is described as ‘benign’, with a double-dip recession viewed as ‘unlikely’, although residential and commercial property values are ‘unlikely to rise rapidly’ for the next 2–3 years.
Earlier this year the ONS adjusted their original -4.7% decline in construction output, to -4.0%. These figures were challenged by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), which said the figures were excessively negative and should be upgraded.
According to Bidwells, this reflects ‘the uncertain nature of the sector at present’, where commercial property owners and developers ‘are now experiencing pressure from all directions’.
There is mixed news for the UK regions covered in the report. In Cambridge, construction orders were down 20% during 2010 while they ‘more than doubled’ in rival university city Oxford. Joining Oxford in edging ahead of the 20% mark were Thames Gateway and Essex, where Bidwells anticipates a ‘ripple effect from London and the Olympic Games’. This will lead to a continued improvement in office, industrial and retail markets, ‘driving property and construction activity over the coming 12 months’. Bringing up the rear were Norfolk and Suffolk, where activity dropped by 16% and 32% respectively in 2010.
Forecast to ‘impact directly on the construction sector’ is planning and sustainability, which ‘will have a deep and enduring impact on the UK building sector in both the short and medium term’. Bidwells expects to see ‘a slower, more cumbersome and more expensive planning process’ for the next couple of years ‘at least’.
Bidwells Building Trends – well worth a read if you’re interested in that sort of thing.
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